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Which is more interesting, to go in the morning or in the afternoon? ( by Atsushi "Tomy" Tomiike )
Every year we have so many people visit the launch site at the Kase River.
There are several reasons to do so, but one motive is in common. They want to enjoy watching the hot-air balloons!
I admit that I am one of the fanatic people. To see all the balloons rise up together is a really exciting scene. To look up at the colorful balloons floating in the sky is also interesting. Sometimes I wonder how the balloons without a steering wheel can move so close to their targets.
Flying in a balloon is totally dependent on the weather.
I know that in my mind, but I feel disappointed at the announcement of cancelling of tasks.
Sometimes a cancelling is announced when the weather looks good.
Then I wonder why they give up the flights in such a nice weather. Recently, however, I seem to have come to understand the reason why they make such a decision, thanks to my visiting here oftentimes.
I'm sorry to take your time on account of such a lengthy preface.
Probably the best thing to do is to wait for the flights to start at the launch site till the weather turns for the better, but it's not possible for every person, is it?
Then which is better to visit the launch site in the morning or in the afternoon?
In the previous five years 34 flights were conducted of all the 50 flights scheduled, which means 68% of flights was carried out. To examine the probability in the morning, 20 flights was completed out of the scheduled 25, which accounts to 80% of probability! Regarding the flights in the after noon, it was only 56%.
I can show you how many tasks were carried out in the other five competitions in Watarase, Saku, Suzuka, Saga, and Motegi.
Out of the 157 flights schduled in these five places, 102 flights or 65% were conducted. To limit it to the morning flights, 69 flights or 84% were carried out of the 82 flights scheluded. To limit it to the afternoon flights, the probability was 44%. Only 33 tasks were completed out of the 75 scheduled tasks.
I don't think you can turn down the probability by saying that it must be nothing but a simple example. The ground is warmed by the sun, which causes the ascending current called thermal. As a result it sometimes causes the afternoon flights to be cancelled. It is a scientific proof.
Of course, there were some cases in which it rained only in the afternoon. Then the scientific proof is not persusive enough, is it?
My dear reader, I hope you came to understand me now.
Yes, let's wake up early in the morning and head for the launch site unless it is raining.
An early bird catches worms! I wish you good luck.
[Written by]
Atsushi "Tomy" Tomiike as a Official website staff member of the Saga International Balloon Fiesta Organization.
2007.07.04 [connection link] Are today's events carried out or not?
